I spent the last few days resting in Osh. It seems like the long riding days and cold temperatures have caught up to me, and I’ve come under with a bit of a flu.

Dinner at a nearby cafe

This was my third time here in Osh, and it strikes me as a relatively interesting property market. While it is Kyrgyzstan’s second largest city, it is home to only ~400K people. It effectively functions as the gateway to the Pamir region of Tajikistan, to China, and also is the closest point to Uzbekistan by road. It feels like any increase in Central Asian tourism (e.g. from China, or even Gulf states) would result in a step change in demand for accommodation in the city, and lead to significant increases in wealth in Kyrgyzstan more generally (population of ~7 million people, can you imagine if Chinese tourism picked up? Supply would be saturated instantly).

Property price growth has mainly been a function of overseas Kyrgyz remitting savings back to Kyrgyzstan, and purchasing property for their family, or to live in, in future. Labour is also relatively inexpensive, and as a result, apartments (new builds) in prime locations are going for ~$1000-1300/sqm, and renting for ~7-8% yields.

Main risks to consider are (i) capital controls, (ii) earthquakes (for apartments), but apart from this seems like downside would be relatively low (tourism feels like an emerging growth area for Kyrgyzstan, rather than a primary economic driver at the moment, so there isn’t much room for demand to “dry up”). Oh, and foreigners cannot own the underlying land, so best situation is a 49 year lease + options to extend (or owning an apartment where land value is discounted/negligible anyway).

Chat with a salesperson from a development firm in Osh

As you can probably tell, outside of my time spent in the apartment, I did go and speak to a few real estate agents and developers. I also spent a morning trying to open a bank account (before finally being told that they didn’t do account openings on weekends…!).

Local grocer

I also spent a few hours preparing for the road ahead, and some minor repairs:

• Purchased a large tarp to store my bike under when the weather gets cold (hopefully it can retain some heat when nights go below zero / deflect wind chill, so it is easier to start the engine in the mornings)
• Purchased some screws to replace the ones that fell off from my GPS mount

Dinner with a friend at Navat (one of the fancier local restaurants in Central Asia)

I have been a bit worried about the riding conditions ahead, given the cold and the altitude. Khunjerab pass seems to have received a significant amount of snow in the last few days (uncharacteristic for this time of year), and I am not so game to be riding in those conditions. A big thank you to my friend Farrukh, who has helped me scout the conditions at the pass, and also to prepare a backup plan (with a driver who can take my bike on their truck) in case the conditions are too snowy/icy for me to safely ride.

Tomorrow; Sary Tash!

Some stats:

• 9.3L fuel added
• 6 unique interactions
• 120g coffee consumed
• 15KMs travelled